3 MCs & 1 DJ
Going into the PGA Championship and the last Milly Maker of the season, it’s time to bring some fun (and Beastie Boys references!) into our coverage this week. This article will break down 3 players above $7000 who project to MC, and what to look for from Dustin Johnson this week.
- Henrik Stenson – $10500
This one is a little out of left field: Henrik checks a lot of boxes required to succeed this week, including being a recent winner (at the Open), a high world ranking (5th), and looks pretty good statistically. That being said, he is absolutely atrocious around & on the greens: -0.25 strokes gained around the green (176th), and -0.21 strokes gained: putting (152nd), which help contribute to very poor scrambling numbers (56.08%, 152nd). Comparing his poor play at Oakmont (which lead to his WD) is a big factor in fading him, as is his high price tag and projected ownership in the 22-24% range. He barely clips the Driving Distance needed to be a winner (291 is the magic number at PGA Championships), and his accuracy will be offset by the toughness of the course. The minute he gets in trouble off the tee, he’ll post big numbers.
- Bubba Watson – $9000
Don’t let his made cut at the Open fool you, Bubba Watson is not a good golfer right now. The biggest knock on Bubba is his mental game – the minute he gets into trouble, he stays in trouble – and that will be a big factor on a tough course. Bubba lucked into the two good draws at the last two Majors which were on tough courses, and that eased him passed the cut lines in both. Although he can mash (4th in DD), he’s very inaccurate off the tee, a horrific player around & on the greens, he barely breaks the top 200 in scrambling, and he’s 141st(!!) in Bogey Avoidance. Weather won’t have as big an affect at Baltusrol as the previous two majors, so he won’t be able to grab that advantage this time. Nothing about Bubba says “Play me!” once you look beyond the distance, and the big name factor.
- Russell Knox – $7500
A guy who got a lot of love heading into the Open after a Top-10 finish at the Scottish Open, Russell has the PGA ‘advantage’ of not missing a cut since the Masters, and a 25th world ranking. There are a lot of spots where playing Knox is a good idea, but a Par-70 that’s over 7400 yards is not one of them; Knox averages 285 off the tee, doesn’t score very well (95th), and although he does avoid bogeys very well thanks to his 13th place accuracy (67.99%), he just doesn’t gain strokes on the field at the rate required. He’s a slightly positive golfer from tee-to-green, around the green and on approach, but he loses 0.163 strokes with the flat stick and is awful hitting out of the sand (124th). He’s been mentioned quite a bit this week as a low-key option to win the whole thing which will boost his ownership a bit, but save the headache and take Russell Knox out of your DK lineups.
For the first time in what seems like a long time, Dustin Johnson isn’t the #1 projected golfer. Those honours go to Jason Day or Jordan Spieth, depending on how you weight Recent Form. Dustin sees a hit to his projected score because of the lack of Par-5s this week which is where he makes his bones, his middling scrambling numbers (60.54%, 53rd), his awful sand save percentage (137th), and his accuracy off the tee. It’s very hard to find holes in DJ’s game now that he’s got the mental aspect going for him, with the monkey off his back after Oakmont. His ownership will be in the 35% range, he projects for the third highest DK points. Play with confidence, but as mentioned in the Core Fore, Jordan Spieth will be much lower owned and cheaper, with a higher expected finish.
Hope you had some fun with this one! The projections for the week are LIVE for members – we had a ton of success last week so hop onto the train this week; you can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey