Birdwings Challenge Round 1 – 2/6/17

In this series I will take on Birdwings in head 2 head cash games on draftkings.  Birdwings is one of the most successful cash players in all of DFS.  This series will give you an opportunity to hear my approach to cash as well as my analysis of Birdwings’ rosters.  

The Slate

This slate was a fun and interesting slate as there was less value then we typically find on an 11 game slate.  This forced you to dig deeper and get creative with your rosters.  This contest went right down to the wire, and was not sealed until Conley was pulled with 2 minutes left in the Grizzlies game and the game safe at hand.

The Result

What we agreed on

Jeff Teague was one of two players we had in common on our rosters.  Playing point guards against OKC is usually a great source of fantasy goodness, and Teague’s price had come down from the 7500-8000 it had been the week prior, putting him in a great spot.  I actually watched this game and Teague missed 6, yes 6 layups in this game and easily could have tacked on another 10-12 fantasy points.

At forward I slotted in T.J. Warren for value and so did Birdwings.  I highly recommend riding the Warren train while you can until his price goes up.  He has really eaten up some of Bledsoe’s usage, and that is leading to lots of scoring opportunity.

 

My Approach

The first lock in 100% of my rosters today was Andre Roberson, and I promise it wasn’t recency bias.  Roberson was coming off his best performance of the year putting up 36.75 fp against Portland on 14 points and 11 rebounds.  Roberson isn`t exactly a scorer, and his rebounds were at an all time high. So why did I lock him in?  First Roberson has had a really solid floor of around 15 fantasy points.   At almost 5x floor,  I could feel safe rolling him out in cash across the industry on his floor alone.  Second,  OKC loves to play him for his great defense.  He spent a fair amount of time guarding Lillard when they played Portland.  With Paul George coming to town,  I expected that using him on George would lead to some extra minutes on the court and boost his floor.  Lastly,  Indiana has a very poor rebounding differential, which meant chances were good he could repeat a high rebound performance.  The result?  34.75 fps and a great start to my team.

With Teague and Roberson locked in it was time to settle on a shooting guard.  Booker has been a plug and play for me in cash.  While shooting guard is a high volatile position in DFS,  Booker is a shooting guard who consistently gets 16-20 shots per game, and gets enough assists and rebounds to make him a somewhat safe option, and he has been extremely consistent this year. His match-up against New Orleans was more than good enough for me to lock him in, and even though he got a disappointing 4x, that really honestly has been his floor.

At Power Forward, my original plan was to go with KAT, but I could not get a roster to fit that I liked, so I pivoted down to Blake which worked insanely well for me.  Watching the Clippers play this weekend I noticed that Blake is playing a lot of Point Forward in lieu of CP3.  Which is leading to increased usage and assists.  I felt his floor was pretty safe and the matchup was solid, and Blake did not disappoint.

At center, I had Adams as my #1 ranked cash center.  He has had a solid floor, and with Indiana’s front court banged up, and Indiana having a poor rebounding differential, something I always love to target for consistency, Adams was a safe play.  Unfortunately after a monster first half, he slowed down in the second half but was still able to hit value.

At the Guard position I always love running a point in cash, and Jrue was an obvious choice for me.  He has been on fire, and shows no signs of letting up.  A high paced high scoring affair, made this an easy choice.

Lastly the utility position.  I almost always put a point guard or center here, but he way things shaped up, James Johnson was the best play that fit.  JJ is an explosive player that can put up big numbers in a short amount of time(and after consulting with Brent), his minutes seemed fairly safe.  Unfortunately he had a rough game, and fell a bit short, but the good news was my other plays who crushed value more than made u for it.

Birdwings approach

Gary Harris was a decent mid range option.  I certainly don`t mind trying to punt or play mid range at the shooting guard because of it’s volatility.  Had Booker not been on the slate I was going to Beal, but going down to Harris or someone else in the price range would have been my third choice, and that is only based off my preference, not saying it was the third best pick.  It is a great way to approach this position.

Brandon Ingram was announced as a starter 1 hour before lock.  Part of being an elite cash player is adjusting to news.  The Lakers coach also talked about developing for the future and playing some more of the young guys.  Ingram has talent, there is no doubt, but that talent has not always shown off on the court.  On a slate short for value Birdwings took a shot given the news and it paid off.

Paul George and Mike Conley are both guys who benefit from DK’s pricing model, that prices down teams in tough matchups.  Both came at a discount, and this is something Birdwings took advantage of.  I will be curious to see moving forward if this is a regular trend or just indicative of this slate.  Ironically both hit 5x on their reduced salaries, something they wouldn`t have done without the discount.

As for Anthony Davis.  Props to anyone with the guts to play this guy in cash.  He’s on my no cash list because of how injury prone he is.  That being said there is no denying he had a solid match-up here, I would have used KAT, but Brow did get some extra scoring and it worked well for him.

Lastly good old HernanGomez was Birdwings second center in his lineup.  I am fine with this play, I had some exposure to him on other sites.  I backed off him a bit because I was concerned about his minutes, but as he continues to get 25 or so minutes per game his cash value will continue to rise provided his price doesn’t

Wrapping up

I start with a win!  But I don`t expect that these will come often.  Happy to get off to a 1-0 start, and I look forward to continued analysis and the intense competition as I take on one of the best in the game.

 

Rob Gardner

Rob got a start as a professional poker player with almost a 10 year career. After Black Friday killed off online poker, Rob made a transition to DFS. Rob has had success in NBA, NFL and MLB, include a win in the fan duel super strike.

lilprog has 40 posts and counting.See all posts by lilprog

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.