In this series I will take on Birdwings in head 2 head cash games on draftkings. Birdwings is one of the most successful cash players in all of DFS. This series will give you an opportunity to hear my approach to cash as well as my analysis of Birdwings’ rosters.
This may have been the craziest slate of NBA DFS I have ever played on. It all starts with a little 5 game slate where Cleveland decides they are going to sit their top 3 players against OKC. All the value in the world is now available and the entire DFS world proceeds to fill out their rosters. Then at around 25 minutes to lineup lock, the Cavs have a change of heart, likely after pressure from TNT or the league or someone else, and they decide that all 3 are playing. Pandemonium ensues as the entire slate has now changed, and everyone is basically starting over on their rosters. Delivering on crunch time is what separates the men from the boys, and I definitely made a few mistakes today, that I was fortunate enough to overcome.
What We Agreed On
Both of us chose Harden over Westbrook. Either were probably fine plays, to be honest, in the short time I had, he fit and I didn`t want to waste time trying to make Westbrook fit. I am not sure if Birdwings was in the same boat or had other reasons for going that route. Once fitting him in the best affordable point guard came in Lillard who played an amazing game against Isaiah Thomas a week ago, and now being at home was at a great spot to have a solid floor.
On the value side we both really whiffed on Okafor, who had been solid and had upside for his price but was ineffective in his time against Orlando tonight. After all the value went away on the Cleveland news, Dekker was one of the better pivots with Turner being out, and we both also whiffed on him, which brought both of our scores down(but hey, great minds think a like). This is the most spots we have shared at four, over the first 4 days of this competition.
So with limited time to react I made a few key mistakes tonight. First I got too cute with value, I originally had Harden out of my lineup and had IT instead. That allowed me to have some safer mid range value such as Aminu and Fornier(ouch). I lost some of that when I no longer could punt with a 3k Cleveland basement value player. What I should have done is dropped IT and thrown in McCollum or ran Heyward and Batum(2 guys I was really high on), instead of going up to Harden. Instead I went to Harden, took Batum out and went to Heyward. Now Heyward was phenomenal, but having both really would have bolstered my score. Hindsight is 20/20, and in the limited time I just wasn`t prepared for that drastic of a change.
Gobert was my #1 center play on the day, he had averaged 48 fantasy points per game in three different games against Dallas this season, and I fully expected him to dominate Dirk. Unfortunately his night was cut short on foul trouble, but he still managed to put up 40 fantasy points for a cheaper salary then Vucevic did. My last two punts Lamb, and Belinelli were a bit reaching. Marco actually got the shots to hit value but missed on his three pointers that would have pushed him over the edge. Lamb didn’t see enough minutes, mainly because MKG put up a huge game. I was hoping that with Gordon out the second unit would be even softer and my guys would feast, but that was not the case.
Mario was Birdwings value flavor of choice, and as we have seen him do before, this was a last minute starter plug and play for him. While the opportunity was there, I think he was equally ambitious as Lamb and Belinelli, as his production in the past had not been great. He did hit the minutes but failed to really do much with them. Instead of paying up for a center or using 2 centers, Birdwings elected to just use Okafor and use the extra salary to fit some midrange value in Ryan Anderson and Robert Covington. Both were in decent spots, and had I had it to do all over again I would have dropped PG to make it work.
Can’t do better than 4-0 in 4 days can I? I have definitely ran good and had some luck on my side. Tomorrow’s 9 game slate will start to tell us if were crushing souls or if variance kicks me in the butt. Here is to going 5-0!
Photo by Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images