Birdwings Challenge Round Three: Wednesday February 8th

In this series I will take on Birdwings in head 2 head cash games on draftkings.  Birdwings is one of the most successful cash players in all of DFS.  This series will give you an opportunity to hear my approach to cash as well as my analysis of Birdwings’ rosters.  

The Slate

A monster 12 game slate with lots of people in great spots, lots of value, and some crazy high scores!!!  A chance to go to 3-0 was on the line!

The Result

 

What we agreed on

 

Not surprising that on a 12 game slate we only had one player in common.  News broke 15 minutes before lineup lock that Markieff Morris would not be playing.  This led to some last minute maneuvering on my part and Birdwings to get Kelly Oubre in our lineups.  He had gone as many as 40 minutes in similar scenarios in the past.  Unfortunately he was a total dud tonight.  Ironically the move to get Oubre in moved MCW out of my lineup, which worked in my favor (Brent you were right on MCW, we may have argued about his success tonight!).

My Approach

First, let me start with the Cleveland and Indiana game.  The line in this game really turned me on to it.  With how well Cleveland had played as of late, and having everyone healthy,  I was shocked by the -3.5 spread.  It is not even that I thought the spread was completely unfair,  Cleveland had been worse on the road,  but what it told me was that Indiana was going to keep this game very close.  In order to do that, Teague and PG3 would have to put up strong outings.  Couple that with the fact that Cleveland is very weak against point guard and small forward and you had a dream scenario.   I was also all over Kevin Love,  because he had the best match-up of the three headed beast, and again, Indiana has bad rebounding differential.  I locked and loaded all three with confidence.  Kyrie Irving who did not have the best matchup, was shooting well and ate up a bit of the usage early,  which is a risk with Cleveland,  but Love did still manage to eek out a decent score.  Teague and PG3 on the other hand did not disappoint!

Marcin Gortat was another automatic play for me.  Not only was his price way too low at 6300, but to beat a dead horse, Brooklyn is dead last in rebounding differential, so sign me up for an under priced center who can rebound! Gortat had averaged 36 fppg against Brooklyn, and right on cue hit for 38 tonight.

Mike Conley had dropped 65 fantasy points on Phoenix last week in Phoenix, and while we did not expect a repeat performance, being at home in a pace up game, he had a fairly safe floor.  I could have gone Schroeder, and those who did tonight(Brent you were right),  got a hefty pay of on it,   I just didn`t trust his floor enough to feel good about him, so I rolled out Conley.   Conley got in foul trouble in the first quarter that hurt his performance, but he still managed to put up an acceptable score.

This left me with 2 decisions, a value center and a shooting guard.  At center it was either Koufos or Cauley-Stein.  Both were great picks,  I sided with Cauley-Stein, because I expected him to get the run in a blow out, and thus have more upside.  I didn`t expect Sacramento to be the one winning the blow out.  But he did get the extra run and just edged out Koufos.

Lastly at shooting guard, I had it nailed down to two, Tim Hardaway Jr, or Crawford.  I sided on Crawford,  and it turns out it mattered little because he only outscored THJ by 1 point.

Birdwings approach

MCW was in my lineup until 5:47 so I certainly can`t fault Birdwings for playing him.  His dud helped me win this matchup.  I like Carmelo as a cash play today as he was priced down to 7300 and had a decent floor.  His upside was surprising,  perhaps Phil lit a fire under him after all.  James Johnson was also in my lineup until 5:47, and had an awful first half, before going bananas in the second half to put up a nice 7x score.  His floor has been 5x so he was a safe pick.

Koufos as I mentioned was in a great value spot and needs no analysis. That brings us to his big three of Kyle Lowry, Karl Anthony Towns and Marc Gasol.  I assume that Gasol was a switch that was made when news came out that Z-Bo was out.  Birdwings definitely loves to capitalize on late news and this looks like a late news move.   Lowry is a bit of a surprise to me.  I did roll him on cash in one site only because I really loved everything else I had and he fit,   but I think there were better plays in the 6-8k range over him on DK specifically.  I had KAT rated behind Blake Griffin, who I couldn`t fit in a lineup I loved here but had everywhere else, again because I have seen him playing a point forward hybrid spot as of late and his usage was through the roof.  Both performed well today, and KAT is taking advantage of the loss of usage from Lavine being out, so it is definitely something you can take advantage of for the next couple days until his price adjusts.

Wrapping up

I honestly though there was little chance of starting out 3-0.  With 2 months left in the season I promise I will not go unscathed.  But I am thrilled with the start.   Can I make it 4-0?  Tomorrow is shaping up to be a really really fun 5 game slate with a ton of juicy plays.  I can`t wait to take on the best again!  Until then… Brent you were right.

Photo by Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images

Rob Gardner

Rob got a start as a professional poker player with almost a 10 year career. After Black Friday killed off online poker, Rob made a transition to DFS. Rob has had success in NBA, NFL and MLB, include a win in the fan duel super strike.

lilprog has 40 posts and counting.See all posts by lilprog

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