LoL Jan 23 LPL/LCK 4 match slate notes

by: League of Legends DFS (@va_ny_la)

GPP: Afreeca Freecs(3-4) vs Damwon Gaming(3-4)  & Fredit BRION(2-4) vs NS RedForce(3-5) & Lgd Gaming(1-4) vs Top Esports(3-4)

AF & BRO are my top two teams to stack in GPP’s tonight. Followed by Lgd. 

Let’s start with AF. They come in as huge underdogs vs DWG, I get it. & MOST LIKELY, they WILL lose tonight. I completely understand that. That said, IN THE EVENT Afreeca Freecs can pull off the upset, based on my research, they are very likely to score high fantasy numbers. In a win vs DWG, I would predict the kills could pile up for AF. Specifically, Bang(ADC) & Kiin(TOP) are my top two favorites to put up good fantasy numbers in a AF victory. 

And Fredit BRION is the wild card I think. I’m not quite sure people are believers in them, even though they just swept DWG. I’m willing to bet that they are for real. Will I be wrong? Probably. But if I’m right, I’d much rather be early to the party than late. If BRO happens to 2-0 sweep NS tomorrow morning, you can say goodbye to rostering them again at such marginal ownership vs inferior teams. 

Lgd is another mystery. How will Kramer’s return impact tonight’s outcome? Does Lgd have a chance to win? sure. Of course they do. If not, Vegas wouldn’t have a spread for it. -1600 is a tall order, but this isn’t the same Lgd team that has gone 1-4 to start the Split. Kramer being back changes everything in my opinion. Worthy of a risk in GPP’s.

Cash: (-1600) Top Esports vs Lgd Gaming  & (-1400) Damwon Gaming vs Afreeca Freecs

First and foremost, I never recommend playing LoL Cash, but if you insist on playing Cash games where -2500 teams are losing to previously winless teams, be my guest. And as my guest, for Cash Games, I would suggest you stack up Top Esports & Damwon Gaming however you are able to. To do this, you’re going to have to sacrifice a MID/ADC position at the Captain spot, but both TES & DWG have the highest probability to sweep, so maybe the GNP Bonus Points will make up for not having a higher upside position at Captain. That said, Kramer is back at ADC for struggling Lgd (1-4). He will be starting in place of the underwhelming ADC Garvey, which makes JackeyLove a little bit less appealing in a seemingly more difficult matchup. So if you don’t want to sacrifice a MID/ADC in your Captain Spot and still want to stack TES & DWG together, you’re going to have to do a one off somewhere with another team & that’s where it gets tricky. The other two games are pretty much toss ups in my opinion. Let’s take a look. For the other LCK matchup on the slate, we have red hot Fredit BRION(2-4) taking on NS RedForce(3-5), who are on a two game skid. NS are the current Vegas favorites at -235, but that line keeps moving in Fredit BRION’s direction and they are still riding high coming off a completely unexpected 2-0 Sweep of DWG, who came in at -2500 favorites in that contest. Hard to predict exactly what will happen here. Is BRO for real? Or was their win vs DWG a fluke? For Cash Games, I can’t trust this game at all. 

Finally, we have Funplus Phoenix(5-2) vs Suning Gaming(3-4). Very hard to predict this outcome as well. For FPX, we have a relatively unknown Bo starting at Jungle in place of Tian. Apparently, Tian is dealing with a personal issue, which leads me to believe that he will not be a sub risk. So those of you nervous about rostering Bo, I don’t think he comes out of the game, even if they lose the first match. So roster away. Now, I could be wrong, but I’m fairly certain this will be the case. Suning, on the other hand, hasn’t exactly looked like the same Suning we are all used to seeing. Since their impressive 2-0 sweep victory vs TES to start the Spring Split, they have lost back to back games to Rare Atom(2-4) & Royal Never Give Up(6-1). So which SN will we get tomorrow morning? The kind that gets swept by SamD? Or the kind that reminds us why they are one of the best teams in the world? I honestly have no idea. All of this makes them very hard to trust in Cash Games. 

So to sum up, I’m avoiding Cash Games altogether on this slate, as I do for every LoL DFS slate. 

Ok. These are my thoughts. I’m going to make my lineups now. Good luck guys.

John Kemp

I've been a programmer and analyst for over 15 years and played fantasy sports for over 20 years. I also love watching and analyzing sports so DFS was a natural fit.

johntkemp has 17 posts and counting.See all posts by johntkemp

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