(1/24) LPL/LCK Slate Breakdown
Today we have a 4 Game LPL/LCK Slate to break down. Let’s dive right in.
LCK Game 1: (3-4) kt Rolster vs (4-5) T1
Current Vegas Odds: T1 -500 kt Rolster +320
The first game of the LCK we get kt Rolster vs T1. T1, currently sitting at -500 favorites, are the heaviest favorites on the slate. For this reason, we should see a decent amount of ownership going to T1. With it being the first game of the LCK, we will have starting lineups before lock. I assume Gumayusi will be starting again for T1. He has been on a killing spree piling up 52 kills through 9 games so far this Split. Comparing him to TES’s ADC JackeyLove, who has racked up 60 kills through 9 games, leading the LPL, that’s pretty impressive. Through 4 losses so far this Split, kt Rolster has died 83 times, averaging over 20 deaths per loss. Based on those kind of numbers, if kt Rolster were to lose twice vs T1, that means T1 could potentially get as many as 40+ kills. With Gumayusi’s 72.6% KP and 48.4% KS in team victories so far this Split, he makes for an excellent play on tonight’s slate. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up with 20+ kills by himself. Add in the GNP Bonus for the Sweep and that looks pretty good for fantasy. If kt Rolster were to pick up the victory here, it would probably be because HyBriD & Doran had good games. In kt wins so far this Split, HyBriD sports a 9.3 KDA & Doran leads the team with a 75% KP.
Bottom Line: I think T1 win pretty easily in this spot. Gumayusi has the perfect opportunity for a high fantasy output in this match. If he can start off hot and build a hefty gold lead over HyBriD in the early game, which I think will happen, he will probably be a killing machine. Keria would be my preferred option at SUP as well when rostering Gumayusi. Keria’s 43 Assists and 74.2% KP through T1’s first 4 wins so far this Split leads the team in both categories.
My Prediction: T1 Sweeps 2-0
LCK Game 2: (6-1) Gen.g Esports vs (5-4) Hanwha Life Esports
Current Vegas Odds: Gen.g Esports -315 Hanwha Life Esports +220
Game 2 of the LCK we get the current #1 team in the league, Gen.g vs the current #4 team in the league, HLE. Gen.g is the better team, no question. They have only dropped one game so far this Split, vs T1. HLE, on the other hand, has been able to force all 3 of their matches to 3 games, unable to sweep the likes of kt Rolster & DRX. While Gen.g hasn’t been putting up super high fantasy numbers so far, Ruler has been solid at ADC. In Gen.g wins so far, he leads the team with a 66.3% KP & a 32.7% KS. Bdd & Rascal would also be viable as well when stacking Gen.g. Rascal’s matchup in the Top lane vs DuDu/Morgan, in particular, seems appealing.
If HLE were to win, I would assume Deft would carry the team. His 45 kills, 44.1% KS & 67.6% KP through HLE’s first 5 wins leads the team in all three categories. JNG Arthur (65.7% KP), MID Chovy (64.7% KP) & SUP Vsta (60 Assists & 62.7% KP) would be where I would go next when rostering HLE. I would avoid the TOP lane altogether because we don’t know if we will get Morgan or DuDu starting, and either way, they are both very unappealing fantasy options and sub risks.
Bottom Line: Gen.g should win pretty easily here. I can see a relatively decent fantasy output possible by Gen.g in this spot, but not sure if it will be enough to break the slate. While Ruler has been solid, we have not yet seen him reach his ceiling. I’m not so sure we see that ceiling game from him today either given the matchup.
My Prediction: Gen.g Sweeps 2-0
LPL Game 1: (2-7) Rogue Warriors vs (5-4) Victory Five
Current Vegas Odds: Victory Five -265 Rogue Warriors +185
This game is hard to predict based on both teams running out different starting lineups for the match. V5 has Aodi starting in the Top Lane in place of LangX and Trigger starting Bot Lane in place of y4. Through three matches so far this Split, Victory Five has pushed each of those to 3 games, not sweeping or allowing other teams to sweep them. However, with the changes in the starting lineups for this match, a sweep one way or the other here isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.
Rogue Warriors, on the other hand, currently leads the LPL in Deaths per game. Through 9 games played so far this Split, RW have died a whopping 171 times! 171 times. 171. Times. In their defense, RW lost 7 of those 9 games, so the number of deaths will obviously be higher for them than for teams with less losses. But it’s hard to look past how much they die. This is nothing new. RW has been playing like this for a while. It’s no secret that teams playing RW are set up for fantasy success. RW will be starting Michi & Reheal at ADC/SUP in place of kelin & QuiQui. Side note: RW have played Michi in 4 games so far this Split. They lost all 4 of those games. So, definitely not my favorite play today by any means.
Bottom Line: RW/V5 could be very bloody. I do see potential sub risks for both teams. Whichever team loses game one, there will likely be a higher than normal chance we could see a substitution, so roster with caution. Avoid in Cash. There is a high likelihood this game could potentially lead the slate in the number of kills. For that reason, I will have exposure to both sides of this game in GPP’s. As far as lineup construction, I would prefer these teams as possibly my 3 stack or part of a 2-1.
My Prediction: RW win 2-1
LPL Game 2: (4-1) LNG Esports vs (8-2) Team We
Current Vegas Odds: Team We -250 LNG Esports +180
For the second match of the LPL we get LNG Esports taking on Team We. Team We, through 10 games so far this Split, have gone 8-2 in that span. They are also 2nd in the LPL in kills, with 158 so far this Split. Jiumeng has been leading the way with 59 of those kills with a 70.3% KP. That said, LNG doesn’t die a ton. They have died a total of 33 times so far this Split through 5 games (Avg. 6.6 deaths per game). Comparing that to RW’s 171 deaths through 9 games (Avg. 19 deaths per game), that number seems pretty dismal. Through those first 5 games this Split, LNG have gone 4-1. & in their only loss, they died a whopping 6 times! 6 Times. 6. Times. That kind of production is hard to trust for Cash and even harder to get there in GPP’s. LNG started off the Split on a high note with a 2-0 Sweep over Invictus Gaming. Their 2nd match, however, they dropped a game to arguably the worst team in the LPL, ThunderTalk Gaming. Light (71% KP), icon (84.3% KP) and Tarzan (68.6% KP) would be my favorite plays from LNG if they are able to pull off the upset here vs Team We. LNG currently sits at +180 dogs, but those aren’t impossible odds to overcome. I always like the upside of Team We, but my initial thought is that it could be potentially capped today vs a team that, so far this Split, refuses to die. Granted, it’s a very small sample size, so a high kill game here isn’t implausible, but seems unlikely.
Bottom Line: I’ll have exposure to both sides here, but not as much as I normally would. In a better matchup, I would have much more exposure to Team We, but today we see a team with high kills vs a team with low deaths. Something’s gotta give. Or maybe not. Maybe we just see a solid, low kill, win from Team We. I just don’t see, even in a sweep, Team We putting up the kind of numbers that will end up in the optimal. Now the possibility is there for sure, but unlikely due to the difficult matchup.
LNG, however, in a win, I can see putting up some decent fantasy numbers. If I were rostering LNG, in addition to Light, I would probably look to roster the MID icon to target the We MID laner, Shanks. Through Team We’s two losses this Split, Shanks has died 10 times with a 0% Kill Share.
My Prediction: Team We Sweeps 2-0
Last night we saw a bunch of sweeps by the favorites and zero upsets. Tonight looks to be somewhat similar. I can see potentially 3/4 of these matches as sweeps. That said, any of these matches could easily be pushed to three games, with any of the favorites potentially getting upset, so consider all this when making your lineups. Since everyone witnessed all of the favorites sweep the last slate, there is a high possibility the majority of the field will play it safe tonight and roster mostly the favorites. I believe the majority of the Ownership tonight will be heavier on all the favored teams, V5, T1, Gen.g & We. With, most likely, V5 getting the most Ownership simply based on their great matchup vs RW. So I would look to these teams first when making Cash Game lineups. If you absolutely want to roster these teams in GPP’s, that’s fine, but you’re going to have to find ways to be different. A couple of ways I would recommend to differentiate your lineups when rostering these teams in GPP’s would be to leave more salary than usual, or do a 4-2-1, or a JNG at Captain, or maybe don’t pair your ADC with his SUP. These are just a few ways you can be different in hopes to make a unique lineup using the favorites. Also, for GPP’s, taking any of the dogs will give you obvious leverage. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we see one or two upsets on this slate. I would even consider possibly game stacking the RW/V5 game, based on the potential number of kills. I love the combo of Gumayusi/Keria today in all formats. And taking a shot at the Late LCK game (Gen.g vs HLE) is, as usual, decent for GPP’s as well because that match, most always, due to the lack of starting lineups, comes with reduced ownership.
Those are my thoughts.
Good luck everyone.