Morning Hangover – NHL Results From January 24th

In a quick recap of line scores from last night; how about those Penguins eh?  Despite the red hot scoring from the Capitals and Penguins, anyone that invested in those lines likely found themselves at the bottom of their contests.  It seemed to be an odd night of scoring as a few team’s 3rd line players stepped up in a big way.  Nashville, Tampa Bay and Buffalo all had great production from their 3rd line last night; DFS players who played third lines (usually ME guys) are the only ones to venture there; unless a line of Konecny-Schenn-Simmonds is “L3”

It was a rough night for some of the high priced lines namely Pittsburgh and Washington. The Bruins however were the pick of the night and any stack with them brought home the bacon. They were the third most expensive stack of the night on DraftKings at $19,900 but as a line they totaled 26 points.

Take a look at this chart below to see where all 60 lines ended up in Draft Kings points compared to their salary.  The salary will go across the bottom of the chart and the higher the line the more Draft Kings points that line scored.

Jan 24 Line Results
Click to Enlarge

Interestingly, there was a lot of value to be found in the second- and third-lines of typically higher-scoring teams: Nashville, Tampa Bay (their second and third lines far out-performed their first), and Buffalo, who’ve found most of their scoring recently from their top two lines.

The takeaway from last night would be finding the value by looking at lines beyond just the top-6; pairing one of the most expensive lines on the slate in BOS1 with a cheaper secondary line would’ve garnered enough points even without accounting for the goaltender/defensemen to be very competitive in GPPs, and would have won all cash games.

Looking specifically at NSH3’s performance, the line of Calle JarnkrokMike RibieroJames Neal combined for a goal and three assists, while firing six shots and adding one blocked shot. Their 12.5 combined DraftKings points more than exceeded their value at a cost of only $12,100, but what made them so valuable last night?

In 11 minutes of 5v5 play, the Preds’ third line piled up five Scoring Chances (while also giving up nine – something to watch in the future) while getting six shots on goal. They spent most of their 5v5 time against Jack Eichel (just under five minutes), but it was when the Jarnkrok line was matched up against Zemgus Girgensons that the Preds’ potted their goal. With Girgensons being a sub-47% player in both CorsiFor% and GoalsFor%, this may actually show us more that targeting AGAINST the third line of Buffalo is the play going forward, rather than extracting value out of NSH3.

John Kemp

I've been a programmer and analyst for over 15 years and played fantasy sports for over 20 years. I also love watching and analyzing sports so DFS was a natural fit.

johntkemp has 13 posts and counting.See all posts by johntkemp

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