NFL is freaking back and the season has already started off with a bang!
Mahomes did Mahomes things and HOU was exposed. The last few months have been filled with uncertainty whether we’d even have a season due to a global pandemic, but the NFL is the big kid on the block and said “f*^%k it, let’s party!”, for which we’re all thankful. Additionally, there have been tons of offseason moves and afew big contract deals which have shaken up the NFL landscape, so let’s just right into the week 1 plays!
Reminder: The majority of these plays can be played in GPPs, but my focus will be on players who – based on raw data, match-ups, & price – I believe are the best plays for a single entry & 3-max contest. To ship a major GPP you’ll likely have to play a < 1% guy, which carries too much risk for this article.
Main Slate TOP PLAYS
• Matt Ryan – has a 30% pass-blocking advantage; SEA pass rush defense
ranked 30th in 2019; SEA allowed 263.9 passing yards (5th worst) in 2019;
home dog; 23.5 team total is solid. And he has the weapons. Fire him up!
• Cam Newton – NE has a 37% pass-blocking advantage; and then there is
the Dolphins… nearly dead last in everything, including pass rush. Rushing
upside. Love him
• PUNT – Tyrod Taylor – likely a low 5% ownership which makes him
appealing; great options to stack; running upside; price opens up a lot of
Running Back –
• CMC – probably will be in every article unless the new coaching staff breaks something. He will cost you of course, but projects nearly 7 points higher than the guy behind him, but not the best value which goes to the guy on the other side of the ball…
• Josh Jacobs – amazing leverage play IMO against CMC ownership. likely
12% vs CMC at 25%. You want to attack CAR in the secondary, but if Jacobs
can get a few redzone looks, he will likely crush value.
• PUNT – Chris Thompson – everyone and their mother knows about Gibson,
but I have him actually projected 2 full points below this other min priced sexy SOB. And I don’t think Gibson gets as many touches as projected… be careful. Thompson comes with risk since he’s primarily going to be catching
passes, but this guy can easily rip one off for 40-50 yards and get into the
end zone. Love his game.
• Davante Adams – if you’re going to pay up, I’m going here instead of MT and saving myself the 1700. Great matchup advantage against Holton Hill; Minn lost Xavier Rhodes; really thin secondary vs 2019, so don’t let those numbers deter you
• Chris Godwin – (if Evans is out) he has the BEST WR/CB matchup on the
slate. Brady is going to pepper him all game. Projected to have 11 targets. PJ
Williams allowed a 71% catch-rate. That’s horrible. If he doesn’t drop balls,
he’s in line for about 8-9 catches.
• PUNT – Parris Campbell – risky because Mack is also a great play and could
fall into 2 TDs and ruin the value of IND WRs. He’s cheap and Rivers loves
slinging it. If Mack doesn’t get going, expect TY, Doyle and Campbell to reap
• Zach Ertz – simply mispriced. Alshon is out which will force an increase in
targets to both Ertz and Goedert. I trust the guy who got 87 targets last year,
and Wentz loves him.
• Hayden Hurst – probably my favorite stack with Matt Ryan, and he’s cheaper than trying to fit in JJ or Ridley. Hooper is gone and the offense is geared towards a funnel over the middle. Hooper had a 72% snap rate, Hurst will likely so the same. He doesn’t block much.
Who knows this crap… likely punting to a sub 2.5k defense and just praying.