NFL Week 4 Top Plays

Week 3 was yet another profitable weekend if you stacked the Boys & Seahawks game and made a few key pivots such as moving over from Diontae Johnson to Juju -albeit we got lucky that an injury occurred – nonetheless the pivot paid off big. This week has now been hit with two major Covid incidences which leaves us with 4 less teams and much tighter player pool. It will be key to make the right pivot or two as we’ll see
higher condensed ownership across the industry. Let’s get into it:


Reminder: The majority of these plays can be played in GPPs, but my focus will be on players who – based on raw data, match-ups, & price – I believe are the best plays for a single entry & 3-max contest. To ship a major GPP you’ll likely have to play a < 1% guy, which carries too much risk for this article.


Main Slate TOP PLAYS
QB:
Deshaun Watson – not only is he one of the best values at the position, but his raw projected score is 4th overall on the slate. They had a 22% pass-
blocking advantage and go against the 22nd ranked pass rush and coverage defense on the slate. Fire him up.
Dak Prescott – if you got the money to get here, then why not? Cowboys
play at the fastest rate, producing more opportunities in the air than anyone. Tougher matchup (Browns ranked in top 10 in almost all pass defensive stats), but there will be plenty of opportunities. My only concern is the squeaky wheel who I’ll mention shortly…
Punt: Ryan Fitzpatrick – 2nd best value on the slate, will likely be playing
from behind and throwing a ton. SEA is horrible (31st in pass rush & 32nd
yards allowed). Two bad defenses with better offenses = scoring abound.

RB:
Ezekiel Elliot & Alvin Kamara – I’m smashing these two together. Zeke has made a couple comments throughout the week that he’d like to get more touches, love the squeaky wheel narrative. He’s a touch monster, ranking 1st amongst RBs, and you attack the Browns on the ground. Secondly, Kamara is my LOCK of the week with MT ruled out. He’s projected for 11 targets (not overall touches, just TARGETS) for this Sunday. Oh, and Cook is out too…

PUNTs: After I smash in those two, i’ll likely round it out with solid punt. Keep an eye on Mixon’s status, if he’s out, then Gio Bernard is the top punt on the slate. Otherwise I’ll be eyeing Mike Davis and David Johnson .

WR:
Tyler Lockett – Going right back to the well here. He rewarded us last week going for multiple TDs and have him projected for 8 targets this week. He’s still too cheap in an offense that’s humming along
D.J. Moore – top projected WR value on the slate. Won’t carry much ownership due to his less than stellar performance last week, but has a very proficient QB in Bridgewater who will be looking his way early and often.
Brandon Cooks – under priced. Criminally. He’s 4.5k. If you’re around here with the last spot, he’s the top 4k WR value.


TE:
Darren Waller – huge matchup advantage against Tremaine Edmunds. Highest target share on the team and 2nd highest receptions in the league w/ 20. I LOVE him this week.
Logan Thomas – right back on the Logan train. if I don’t pay up for Waller, I’ll be take the 1700 savings and pay down for Logan Thomas.
SUPER PUNT – Adam Trautman – don’t recommend many shares, but if you love a LU and he’s the last man in at stone cold min, then take a little chance here.

Good luck this week!

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