DFS Datalytics Week 5 – Top Plays
After 4 weeks of the NFL season, we can now start relying more and more on current data to analyze players, match-ups, and ultimately build a more optimal lineup. And because of this, we’ve arrived to the point where identifying possible landmines and successfully pivoting off them is
1) slightly more clear
2) much more important (due to ownership).
That is to say, the field is “sharper” and the player pools tend to be tighter by now. I use that word liberally since the aforementioned player pool is fabricated by industry touts who steer the masses in the same direction; so let’s pivot away the herd!
SUNDAY TOP PLAYS
QB • Carson Wentz – projected in model to be the top 3rd scoring QB on the slate, and yet is priced the 6th most expensive. Going against the 28th ranked defense against the pass in the Jets, who allow 287 yards per game to opposing QBs. Offense is getting healthy all around him.
• PIVOT: Matt Ryan – all the guy does is throw for 300 and 2/3 TDs a game. Playing in one of the highest projected total games. Texans funnel everything to the passing game. I may end up here due to price.
• PUNT: Andy Dalton – not for the faint of heart. But he’s projected to throw more than any other QB on the slate. The run game is an afterthought, and they goes against a terrible secondary in the Cards.
Running Back • CMC – I’ll probably just leave this here every week. Play him. He’s 2 players. Should be priced >10K. • IN ADDITION: David Johnson – I love pairing him with DJ who should be the focal point in the ARI offense with Kirk out and an Oline that allows Murray exactly zero time to look downfield. Projected for 9 targets. If he gets you 7 receptions for 65 yards, anything on the ground or in the EZ is a bonus.
• PIVOTS: Mark Ingram & Ekeler – because of the expected ownership for CMC, Zeke, & DJ, these 2 will go severely underowned. Ingram has quietly been the #5 highest scoring RB in DFS. He’s shown a scary floor, but Pitt is allowing 122.8 yards a game on the ground, and BAL is projected to have multiple redzone opportunities. Ekeler has been a beast. There’s been whispers that MG3 will only play 25-35% of the snaps, if that’s true, then Ekeler will smash against this horrid DEN rush defense, and he’ll be very low owned.
Wide Receiver • D. Hopkins – has had some of the toughest corner matches known to man and still has put up 16dk points a game. Now he goes against one of the softest CB units in the league in an expected high scoring game, he’s going to ERUPT. Tough part is finding the money to pay for him. But if you have it, spend it on Hopkins.
• PIVOT: Michael Thomas – egregiously underpriced due to Bridgwater at the helm. But MT runs his routes 8-10 yards down the field, which has been Bridgwater’s preferred check down. Nothing changes for MT and his 80%+ catch rate.
• PUNTS: Javon Wims & Auden Tate – they have both been getting buzz around the industry, and rightfully so. In order to fit in a few studs, you’ll have to punt 1-2 spots, and these guys provide the value along with volume. I prefer Tate due to matchup and where he runs his routes (basically a TE (see Cards against TEs)). Wims has a successful preseason track-record with Chase Daniels.
Tight End • Austin Hooper – I didn’t want to believe it, but this guy is the real deal this year. He’s seeing the volume (my previous issue with him), has great hands, and has earned the trust of Matt Ryan. He’s who I’ll likely
• PIVOT: Darren Waller – you’re getting a WR here. He’s a target monster and projected to see more volume than any other TE. Has a tough matchup, but in a PPR format, it’s not too much of a concern. Loses some TD equity.
• PUNT: Noah Fant – if you’ve decided to completely punt at TE in order to fit another position to your liking, you could do worse than Fant. He’s seeing about 3.5 targets a game and projected to be playing from behind. I could see this being a game where he gets 4/40 and provides close to 3x return. (won’t win you a gpp)
DEF – Anyone against Miami is good (will be a permanent sentence this year). I am punting this week in order to smash in 4 studs. My favorite punt is Tampa Bay. Who will likely allow the opposing team to score, but that doesn’t matter when you’re averaging 3 sacks a game and 2 turnovers. 2.2k for a reasonably safe floor is okay by me.