NHL DFS 1.15 BY JIMMY

Hello! I am excited to be providing content for you guys throughout this season. My process on selecting stacks and a player pool includes using my own model that uses regression statistics plus looking at Vegas totals, pace of play, and a little bit of gut intuition! 

TOP STACKS

TB1 (Palat, Point, Stamkos) 

Its the same case as Wednesday. There isn’t a lot to say here. TB is fast and they play fast. When you combine that with the talent they have it makes for a high scoring team. This line combined for 63 DK points on Wednesday and their price rose from it.  They did not dominate from a statistics perspective as they were close to even in controlling the puck. (52% CF as a line, 3 more CF as shots attempted) but this is an instance where I KNOW they are much better than the opposition. They will cost you $21,000 between the 3 of them so you will need value to fit them. They are playing Chicago again and I expect another blowout. In cash/Single Entry/ 3 max I think you need at least 2 of these pieces. This line stack will be popular so in large field GPP if you want to fade you will gain some ground on the field. But fade at your own risk. These 3 could easily put up 60+ dk points again. 

PHI 2 (Giroux, Hayes, Farabee)

I know it is only a one game sample but…for now that is all we have to go by. This line dominated PIT 2 on Wednesday. The collective CF% was 66% for this line. That is very good for a full line. I will go back to the well tonight and take a chance on these guys to play well again. My model is saying that the flyers are expected to have 7.5 High Danger Scoring Chances tonight so I will hope that this line gets the majority of those. Plus, these 3 all play on either the 1st or 2nd PP unit. This stack only cost 15.3K and will open things up for you.

TOR 1 or 2 

1 ( Thornton-Matthews-Marner)

2 ( Vesey-Tavares-Nylander)

I like both of these stacks. I was a little worried about Thornton playing on the top line but they played well together. They controlled the puck well (64% CF as a line) although they did not find the stat sheet. Ottawa is not as good as Montreal and I am willing to bet the top line puts the puck in the net tonight. TOR 2 was the line that lit the lamp on Wednesday but it’s actually TOR 1 that my model says had the better game. However, I am good with playing TOR 2 as they could find success here as well against an inferior Ottawa. If deciding between the two, its worth noting TOR 1 plays on PP1 together as well. 

Other Plays/1 offs 

                      These players  grade high in my model for expected Corsi for the game but as a whole their line did not grade out well. The number in parenthesis is their expected Corsi for the game. 

$8.4 Alex Ovechkin W (8.9)

$5.5 Jaden Schwartz W (8.6)

$2.9 Evan Rodriques W (8.4) 

$5.1 Nicklas Backstrom C (8.4)

$6.4Jake Guentzel W (8.3)

$7.0 Sidney Crosby C (8.3) 

$2.7 Brandon Tanev W ( 8.3) 

$3.1 Robert Thomas C (8.2)

TOP VALUE  D MEN 

$5.3 Colton Parayko (11.1) 

$2.7 Phillipe Myers (11)

$2.8 Marcus Petterson (10.3)

$3.8 Travis Sanheim (10) 

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