Slate Overview for 1.21

SLATE OVERVIEW

PHI (2) @ BOS (3.5)

The flyers started off hot scoring 11 goals in two games to start the season against the Penguins but have slowed down with scoring a combined 4 in their last two against Buffalo. This is a bit confusing since both the Penguins and Sabres rank 1st and 4th respectively in CA/60. Both Pittsburgh and Buffalo are grading out well in limiting high danger chances as well as Buffalo (5 per 60 min.) is the best in the league and Pittsburgh (10.24 per 60) ranks 16th. It does not get easier for the flyers in this matchup. Boston ranks 2nd in CA/60 and 18th in HDCA/60. With the implied total only being 2, I am staying off the Flyers tonight.

The bruins are somewhat hard to read as well. I think they get back on track once they get David Pastrnak back, but so far they have scored 4 goals in 3 games. On the other hand, they have yet to score a goal 5 on 5 and have an expected GF at 5 on 5 of 4.6. The Bruins should have some positive regression coming. With an implied total of 3.5 I don’t think playing BOS 1 of Marchand-bergeron-DeBrusk is a bad play here.

NJ (2) @ NYI (3.5)

I am going to be avoiding this game. The under 5.5 is juiced all the way to -150 on Draftkings and is the 2nd lowest implied scoring game in my personal model. The statistics back up that way of thinking as well. Both teams rank in the bottom five in CF/60 so they don’t generate a lot of pucks towards the net. However, they both allow over 58 CA and rank in the bottom 7 in that category. Both teams play a conservative style that will allow you the opportunity to shoot outside of the circles at the expense of missing out on generating their own opportunities. The Devils do rank 11th in HDCF/60 while the Islanders rank 17th so they are both somewhat in the middle of the pack there. I am going to be avoiding this game and if anything I will play a small percentage of NYI 1 of Lee- Barzal-Eberle because they also play on the PP together.

TB (3.5) @ CBJ (2)

This is the game that I have as finishing as the lowest total. This is a mismatch for CBJ in real life but for DFS the Blue Jackets play ok on defense. CBJ is only giving up 8.24 high danger chances per 60 which is ranked 10th. They are killing penalties at 89% on the year so far. The only weakness as far as DFS is concerned is they are giving up a lot of shots towards the net at a 59 per 60 minutes clip. Let’s hope Joonas Korpisalo can keep them out of the net tonight as I am saying to fade Tampa! Korpisalo has a .944 save percentage so far this year so lets keep him hot!

WPG (4) @ OTT (2.5)

Ottawa is one of my four teams I am focusing on playing on this slate. They are generating the most HDCF/60 on the slate at 13.49 shot. That is 2nd in the league behind Edmonton. The next closest on the slate is Tampa Bay at 11, then NJ at 10.74. Despite the low team total, I think Ottawa is a good GPP play tonight. Ottawa was up 3-1 on Tuesday and ended up losing 4-3 in OT. I think the Senators give an inspired effort to put this game away. I will have a line with Tkachuck, Norris, Batherson, and Chabot.

MTL (4) @ VAN (2.5)

This game is annoying because I think both sides are in play. It is annoying because of last nights 6-5 OT game; it is going to be popular. I use CF/60, CA/60, HDCF/60, and HDCA/60 to try to get a baseline on where to start my lineups. Well, tonight it spit out Montreal as the best place to start and Vancouver 2nd. It is hard to get a feel on things this early in the year. We have minimal data plus COVID is making its way thru the NHL. Vancouver does not have a good roster. As some members of the community pointed out last night, they were due to score, especially on the PP. Well, last night they did. They scored 3 times on the Powerplay. I am going to write last nights game off as an outlier and a Carey Price floor game. Jake Allen is getting the start tonight and he is good. Allen sported a .936 save percentage last year in 25 games and a .896 save percentage against High Danger chances. That was the best high danger save percentage among goalies who played 13 games or more. Vancouver used up all their goals last night, Im taking a stand and saying they do not score more than twice tonight. On the montreal side, its somewhat hard to figure out who to use. MTL 2 of Drouin-Suziki- Anderson all also get time on the PP although it isn’t together. Brendan Gallagher, who skates on the first line with Tatar and Danault, ranks 2nd in the league in ICF/60. When he is on the ice, his line dominates. If you want to stack, I would use MTL 2 but I think any of the players on MTL 1 or 2 are viable.

COL (3.5)@ LAK (2)

Colorado is starting Hunter Miska in goal tonight. Miska has made one appearance in the NHL and it was in 2018-2019 where he only faced 9 shots. Miska is a 25 year old AHL goalie who had a .895 save percentage in 2018-2019 and .924 last year. It is hard to tell what you are going to get from him so I would fade. I don’t know that I would play LA guys either as Colorado only allows 7.33 high danger chances (7th) and 45.67 CA/60 (6th). LA is dead last in generating High danger chances so far this season. A lot of times when a goaltender gets a chance like this, the team is extra motivated to play for him. I don’t know that LA gets a lot of scoring chances here. I would fade LA. On the Colorado side, LA is middle to the back end on giving up shots and scoring chances. Quick had an OK year last year for the kings but is off to a bad start this year. COL 1 is in play here for sure.

SPARKNOTES VERSION

Top Plays

COL 1

MTL 1

MTL 2

OTT 1

Also fine stacks

NYI 1

BOS 1

Player pool with high ICF/60 on teams that graded well in my model  if stacking isn’t your thing.

Brendan Gallagher

Brayden Point

Adam Gaudette

Brady Tkachuk

Derek Stepan

Anders Lee

Nathan MacKinnon

Blake Coleman

Mikko  Rantanen

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

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