Friends, Romans, degens, lend me your ears. It’s freaking week 1 of the 2019
season, and it’s about to get weird. I absolutely love week 1 because my BR is a plenty,
prices are screwed up, and most of all, contests are filled with casual(read: fish) players.
There has been tons of talk in the industry about paying up at RB and finding WR value,
which is sound and not a bad approach, but I also think there’s an edge to be had by
focusing construction around TE and QB this week. That being said, opportunity and
volume trumps all. How do you measure opportunity? Assign value to targets and
receptions against RB carry… (target x-value) + (reception x-value) = opps. We can talk
more about this in the slack. Any who, let’s party.
SUNDAY TOP PLAYS
• Jameis Winston – do I think this guy is particularly good at real football, not
really. Is he a DFS goldmine, sure is. He’s playing in one of the highest totals
on the slate, against a middling defense and has a healthy slew of good pass
catchers. Evans, Godwin, OJ Howard… and best of all, no real running game
to step in.
• PIVOT: Jared Goff – Highest total on the slate. Kupp is back. Low %
expected. Love love him in GPPs
• PUNT: Nick BD Foles – will be playing from behind. Going to be
forced to throw. KC doesn’t care if he scores 3 TDs, cause they’ll
• Christian McCaffrey – No surprise here. He’s 2 players in one and should be
priced at 10K plus. Price and value is abundant and I would be hesitant to
overthink this play. High scoring game expected. Cam doesn’t run much
anymore and uses McC as his bail out when in trouble. Projected to have 6.5
receptions. Can ruin your day in a hurry if you fade him.
• PIVOT: Todd Gurley – On the other side of the ball I think there’s an
amazing opportunity to be contrarian. If you don’t play McC because
you think Panthers get there via WR/TE, Gurley provides an amazing
pivot. Don’t worry about his health… it’s week 1, he’ll be ready to go.
Probably the most severely underpriced play on the board IMO.
• PUNT(?): Dalvin Cook – I added the ? because it’s hardly a punt. But
Week 1 pricing doesn’t require you to punt, and I highly advised
against going down below the 5k mark. Cook will be featured early
and often, in a game where he’s projected for 4 receptions and 18
carries. At 6k, he’s primed for 3x+
• EXTRA – Kerryon Johnson – lowest I’ll go, and could be los
nuts. No Theo Riddick and coaches want to “establish the
run”. Probably throw him into a LU and hope a couple chalks
• Chris Godwin – positively correlated (unlike Evans) with Winston. He’s
clearly the #2 receiver and talented enough to be #1 on many NFL teams. If
you play Winston, I suggest pairing him with Godwin or a TE I’ll discuss in a
• PIVOT: Kenny Golladay – He has the 15th most targets last year
even after missing a game. He’s Stafford’s go-to weapon and nothing
is going to change this year. He’s projected slightly lower % than
Godwin, with 2.5 more targets (9).
• PUNT: Dede Westbrook – I will have him paired with BD Nick in
every lineup. He’s clearly the best WR talent and his ADOT is exactly
the depth that Foles throws. It’s a match made in heaven.
• Kelce – I know I know, going out on a limb here. If you can get to him, just do it.
The TE position is so volatile, and a 3pt output by Engram could really hurt… Kelce
is TE only by program, he’s really their WR2. They run routes solely for Kelce.
Expect him to have 7+ receptions, with my only worry being gameflow. If KC gets out
early, they may turn to the run game.
• PUNT: OJ Howard – absolutely in love with this play. Godwin and WR
company are getting all the love, but Howard is currently projected as the 5th
highest owned TE at 8%. He averaged nearly 5 receptions last year before
getting injured. He’s healthy, in a shootout type game. He’s mispriced.
DEF – Eagles, Chargers, Seahawks.
- Written by Mike Graham