It’s almost back folks, that time of the year that gets all of us here at DFS Datalytics more jacked up than that kid in Talladega Nights on Mountain Dew! All of us at DFSD are excited and we hope you are as well to be back. This article serves as a breakdown to some of the key statistics that I will mention throughout my articles that are posted this season. This should help make it easier for some of you to follow along and understand what is being discussed, especially if you’re new to NHL. Below is a list of statistics and what it is they represent.
Team Level Metrics
Corsi – This metric not only represents one of DFSD chat’s most well respected members who may or may not have an affinity for craft beers, but represents a metric that gained a large audience in the NHL analytics community several years back. Corsi represents any scenario in which a player shoots the puck and it results in a shot on goal, missed shot, or blocked shot. This is important because it helps us get an idea of how much a team manages the puck, the idea being you can’t shoot without having possession of it. Since the NHL doesn’t actually track possession time this is a great way to help get an idea of how much a team can control play.
CF% – Corsi For Percentage, being the percent of time the player or team is expected to create “attempts”
CF60 – Corsi For per 60 minutes – represents the amount of “attempts” a team produces per 60 minutes
CA60 – Corsi Against for 60 minutes – represents the amount of “attempts” a team allows per 60 minutes
Shots – Any “attempt” that is produced by a player that results in either a save or goal. Using this metric is beneficial especially when looking at the goaltending position
SF60 – Shots For per 60 minutes – represents the amount of “shots” a team produces per 60 minutes
SA60 – Shots Against per 60 minutes – represents the amount of “shots” a team allows per 60 minutes
When we are looking at “goal” metrics, you will notice a reference to GF/GA and xGF/xGA. Essentially what we are analyzing here is what has ALREADY happened versus what we EXPECT to happen. A unique way to possibly review this is by reviewing the difference between the two. For example, if a team has a GA60 of 1.12 but has an xGA60 of 3.24, that’s a fairly large difference. It could be be a possible hint to incoming regression, and not in a good way. It’s not always a guarantee, but expected goals is one of the hottest metrics in the NHL analytics community. As to when it is expected to happen, if you can solve that riddle, please email Jonathan Gab so he can factor it in to his model which gives us #THEPLAYS.
GF60 – Goals For per 60 minutes – the amount of goals a team scored per 60 minutes of play
GA60 – Goals Against per 60 minutes – the amount of goals a team allowed per 60 minutes of play
xGF% – The percentage of the time the team is expected to score
xGF60 – Expected Goals For per 60 minutes – the amount of goals a team is expected to score per 60 minutes of play
xGA60 – Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes – the amount of goals a team is expected to allow per 60 minutes of play
SH% – Shooting Percentage – the percentage of shots at the team or player level that result in a goal
SV% – Save Percentage – the percentage of shots that a goalie prevents from scoring
PDO – the sum of a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. A metric that moves toward a league average of 100% (or 1.0), and some deem as a measure of “puck luck.” A team’s PDO being well above 100% could indicate that the team has been gettting lucky, while a PDO being well below 100% indicating a possible unlucky streak. Be sure to check and see which metric is dragging the PDO level down or bringing it up. If it’s shooting percentage, it’s an indication that a player or team could start scoring more or less, depending where on the spectrum it falls. The same applies for saves.
Individual Player Level Metrics
iCF60 – Individual Corsi For per 60 – the amount of attempts an individual player creates for per 60 minutes
iSCF60 – Individual Scoring Chances For per 60, chances from within a specified perimeter of the net, almost in the shape of a “home plate” branching out to the face off circles, up a short distance, and across to the other side of the ice
iHDCF60 – Individual High Danger Corsi For per 60, attempts from within a very close proximity to the opposing team’s goalie. Attempts from this area can have a tendency to be converted to goals at a higher rate, depending on the caliber of goalie being faced and the caliber of shooter (not this is not in any way me saying load up on guys who ONLY create attempts from the high danger areas)
G/60 – Goals per 60 by individual player
ixGF60 – Individual Expected Goals For per 60
GSAA – Goals Saved Above Average – the number of goals a goaltender prevents compared to the league average, the higher the better
HDSV% – High Danger Save Percentage – the percentage of saves a goaltender makes from the high danger areas. Utilizing this metric can be a great method of finding goalies to target against that the public might not be fully aware of, or goalies who maybe fly under the radar as well (not in any way me saying ONLY load up on goalies who have elite HDSV%)
HDSV/60 – High Danger Saves per 60 – the number of saves from the high danger area a goaltender saves per 60 minutes
Saves/60 – Goaltender saves per 60 minutes