Hey everyone! Today’s upcoming slate of matches is abbreviated due to the diminished player pool, so I am going to keep my thoughts on it brief as well. Let’s get to it!
During the brief offseason, I have invented some brand new metrics to add to my player evaluation arsenal, including a match win% model! You will definitely want to check them out via our subscriber’s only chat room, but you will at least get a taste of my new offerings in my articles. Be sure to leave a comment or tweet @GiantOctopus4 if you have any questions. As always, contact @DFSDatalytics or shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org for a free trial to access our premium chat with plenty of exclusive info from spreadsheets that you won’t find on my articles!
Format: Player Name (Draftkings Salary, Draftkings American Betting Odds as of publication)
David Goffin ($10,300, -910)
David Goffin shares basically an identical spot to the other expensive plays on the slate: a fairly good player going against a complete scrub. Seeing as Goffin is cheaper than De Minaur by a sizable $600 and Pliskova isn’t really serving her best (her ace to double fault ratio recently and on the year are both well below her career levels), Goffin is the preferable option of the three. Still, the others are plenty viable as complementary plays. It’s worthwhile playing them in lieu of or even with Goffin if you can make the salary work.
Marta Kostyuk ($8,600, -210)
The 18-year-old Kostyuk is looking like a rising star in the women’s circuit. She’s looking like a true tour level talent in her limited action so far, finishing 2020 with an 18-8 record, including a 4-1 record against top 100 players with her sole loss coming against the elite Naomi Osaka. Meanwhile, Hsieh is old with some potential fitness issues. (Before her surprisingly shaky win versus Vondrousova, she had not won a match against a top 100 player for over a year.) Kostyuk has some double fault issues that bring her value down slightly, but she remains a good value for her odds of victory (which I actually think oddsmakers are underrating) and dominance potential alone.
Altuğ Çelikbilek ($6,000, +190)
Basilashvili picked up his first win in what has felt like ages, but it went to three sets and it wasn’t against an especially formidable opponent. Celikbilek is coming off of a win versus a fine challenger level guy in Zuk, which is plenty good enough for me to recommend lining him up versus Basilashvili until he proves he can perform at a consistent basis.
Vera Zvonareva ($5,600, +220)
Svitolina looked good but not quite dominant in her quality win over Jessica Pegula. That’s not quite the caliber of play to place her as such a strong favorite against the formidable Zvonareva. Universal Tennis Rating and my win% algorithm place Zvonareva as only a slight underdog against Svitolina, an absurd value at $5,600.
Xiyu Wang ($4,800, +410)
Still more or less an unknown commodity, the 19-year-old Wang is on my mental list of young WTA players to keep an eye on. While not as dominant as Kostyuk, she did put up a 4-4 record against top 100 players in 2020 and even pulled an upset versus the highly ranked Martic. Rybakina did not play a whole lot of hard court tennis in late 2020. Plus, she only has an easy victory against a low ranked competitor under her belt this tournament. Despite Rybakina’s higher talent level and experience, I think there’s a shot that Wang can bring her best tennis here and really make Rybakina uncomfortable. She’s definitely an underdog, but maybe not as bad of one as the +410 line would suggest. Overall, drafting Wang is both a great way to get contrarian in a GPP with a smaller player pool and to also help pay up for multiple expensive plays up top.