A solid & profitable start to the NFL season no matter how much Tyrod Taylor tried stealing monies by not understanding how to utilize his weapons. Luckily Matt Ryan was a garbage time hero and Davante Adams completely crushed. Week 2 already feels like we’re in mid-season form with regards to the monster amount of injuries that took place creating a wide range of value across the industry. I think the key this week will be avoiding bad chalk and making the right pivot or two, while paying up
for a few studs. Let’s get into it…
Reminder: The majority of these plays can be played in GPPs, but my focus will be on players who -based on raw data, match-ups, & price – I believe are the best plays for a single entry & 3-max contest. To
ship a major GPP you’ll likely have to play a < 1% guy, which carries too much risk for this article.
Main Slate TOP PLAYS
• Patrick Mahomes – not much is needed to say about Mahomes, if you get
up to him this week then do it. Although Chargers ranked 5th in pass rush
last week, he just has so much talent and SO many weapons. He’ll smash
just about every week.
• Matt Ryan – 6% pass-block advantage, Dallas O-line is middle of the road.
Ryan threw the ball 54 times last week. Cb Jourdan Lewis questionable.
• LOCK .- Kyler Murray – biggest misprice IMO on the slate. AZ has a 11%
pass-block advantage. Washington’s defense is pretty solid, but their offense
is atrocious. Kyler will have the ball often and rushed for 13-91-1. He has a 7
point floor with rushing alone.
Running Back –
• Zeke Elliot – Falcons. 20th in run defense last week. Although he only saw 4
targets last week, I expect that to go up slightly. Projected for 23 carries,
almost a lock for the 100 yard bonus.
• Aaron Jones – LOVE this pivot away from either Henry or Zeke (who will be massively owned). 22% run block advantage. 5 RZ touches last week. 6
targets. 6pt favorite against Detroit. He gets fed early and often.
He can get a few redzone looks, he will likely crush value.
• PUNT – Jonathan Taylor – The. Colts. Have. A. 75% FREAKING run-
blocking advantage this week!! That’s diabolical. Hines has his role, but Taylor is in line for a breakout game. Vikings rank 31st in run defense and
17th in tackling last week.
• Davante Adams – if you’re going to pay up, go here. He say 1 targets last
week. Not likely to repeat, but easily in line for double-digit targets. Great
matchup against Oruwariye. Only reservation is that I like Jones a lot which
might hinder his TD output.
• Mike Evans – he’s lined up against midgets. Tallest CB he’ll face is 5’11.
Playing against 31st ranked secondary after week 1. “Decent” QB who will
feed him the ball if Godwin misses. Saw 94% snaps last week, don’t let the
injury scare you.
• PUNT – Parris Campbell – my punt last week and love him again this week.
Hopefully you played him. If you don’t want to go back to the well, then look at the following couple guys:
• Diontae Johnson
• Adam Humphries – super punt
• Mark Andrews – if you’re paying above 4.5k, then go here. 32% matchup
advantage; 75 air yards, 12.5 average target; 4 redone targets
• Logan Thomas – 4th in air yards for TEs. Likely playing from behind. Only
pass-catcher ahead of him is McLaurin. Project for 6 targets at a very cheap
• Super Punt – Mo Allie-Cox – I likely stick with Thomas, but if you find
yourself a few bucks short, he’s in a great spot for only 3k!
DEF – I’m likely punting to a sub 2.5k defense