Week 4 wasn’t as successful as the preceding weeks due to a mix of bad luck
(more TD vulturing) along with simply bad process (looking at your Brandin Cooks) from me. But in the world of DFS, win or lose, every week we get a clean slate and a chance to make all the monies. So I’ll take the L and learn from my mistakes and put my focus onto Week 5. Let’s get into it!
Reminder: The majority of these plays can be played in GPPs, but my focus will be on players who -based on raw data, match-ups, & price – I believe are the best plays for a single entry & 3-max contest. To ship a major GPP you’ll likely have to play a < 1% guy, which carries too much risk for this article.
Main Slate TOP PLAYS
• Dak Prescott – this shouldn’t come as a surprise; Dak has been a complete
monster this year partly due to his weapons and very much due to how awful DAL defense continues to be. Even at this elevated price, he grade out as the best point per value (ppv) on the slate. Only problem is, I kind of like the Zeke leverage here. More to come.
• Patrick Mahomes – is a great leverage play, and will be much less
owned but projects similarly in raw points.
• Teddy Bridgewater – it may sound like a stretch, but hear me out: ATL ranks bottom 1/3 in pressure, they are injury riddled in their secondary, he’s showing mobility upside, and he’s 6# in total yards per game (ypg). He’s cheap.
• Ezekiel Elliot – back to the well, and I think great leverage off the massive
amounts of ownership that the Boys WRs will get this weekend. He’s seen tons of negative game script due to DAL aforementioned terrible defense. They play the NYG who are horrendous and should be playing ahead most of the day. He’s the biggest workhorse RB in the league
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Raiders are 28th in run defense, 31st in tackling. He’s averaging 18 carries per game and seeing an additional 4.5 targets in the air and 22% run-blocking advantage which is massive!
• Mike Davis – ATL is just no bueno and Davis may not have CMC level usage
(who does?!) but he’s nearing the “workhorse” moniker. In line for 20+ touches (carries + targets),
• PUNT: Antonio Gibson – only seeing 40% snap share, but he’s been crushing when he’s in. RB1 for 3 straight week, and now goes against the 30th ranked Rams run defense. WSH has a solid run-blocking advantage. He’s under priced but carries some risk.
• DJ Moore – this is one of the best leverages on the slate in my opinion. Most of the industry is talking up Robbie Anderson, and it’s true, he’s been a stud, but DJ Moore is the better receiver overall. He is coming in at much less ownership than Anderson, yet grades out for 3 more DK points in my model. Pair him with Bridgewater
• DAL WRs: This is a conundrum since I think 1 of the big 3 (Cooper/Lamb/
Gallup) will have a big day. If you have the money to get to Cooper, go there as he projects higher than any other WR on the slate, but not by much. If you need to save a few bucks, I think Lamb is one of the most miss-priced receivers on the slate.
• NYJ WRs – if Breshad Perriman is in, then ignore this section since I think it really hurts one of the best values on the slate in Jeff Smith at 3k(!). Don’t
expect the 9 targets he got last week, but I have him projected for 6 targets for the stone minimum. He allows you do almost anything with your lineup.
• Darren Waller – love him again this week. Not only is he the top PPV TE on the slate, he also projects as the highest scoring TE in my model. Will play against Hitchens who isn’t good at covering TEs, not he gets this monster. Currently seeing 30% of the target share and running routes on 90% of snaps. Volume volume volume.
• Evan Engram – If you don’t have the $ to get to Waller, then I think Engram is the best value at TE. Playing 94% of team snaps, 21% target share. Great
leverage play of Slayton who I personally don’t like this week, but will be
Good luck this week!