Tilt Busters

I cant tilt with the best of them, and I’m not afraid to admit it. If I’m on tilt it’s usually because my goalie play has gone wrong, sometimes horribly wrong (no I didn’t have Darling last night), but I did make a mistake last night in contest selection and here’s why. 

My lineups were settled last night mostly on Jets 1’s and Caps 1’s, the only internal debate I had was who to take in net. I didn’t really want to pay up for Bishop or Holtby and I wasn’t going to get sucked into the Darling black hole, so I settled on either Ondrej Pavelec or John Gibson. 

Let’s look at both of the choices. Pavelec was cheaper, playing at home, and against the Vancouver Canucks who’ve shut everyone on their team down and are going full #TankWars the last ten games of the season. The Canucks just got shut out by the Blues and have very little firepower on the team not named Sedin. 

On the other hand was John Gibson who is playing behind the resurgent Anaheim Ducks. Gibson was been tremendous this year and Montreal is coming off a game where they made Niklas Backstrom look like an NHL goaltender. Gibson was more expensive which means I’d have to downgrade somewhere to fit him into the lineup. 

I played probably about 70% of my action on Gibson and 30% on Pavelec. Im not sure if those numbers are 100% correct but it was somewhere around there. Sometimes these decisions seem so close in our head before the games start, but when they play out these are choices than can and often do make a 10-15 point difference in your point totals at the end of the night. 

Sometimes the best advice is that which you give to yourself but you don’t heed. I am an unashamed member of #TeamOneLineup often times running out only one lineup per site each night. That way I can actually cheer for something specific to happen rather than something to happen. What I’ve done in the past to combat tilt but didn’t do last night was to enter each lineup I make into the same number and dollar value of contests. The only decision I’d have to make then are which lineups to put into the single entry contests. 

Last night on FanDuel I entered the Gibson lineup at roughly six times the value of my investment in the Pavelec lineup. With the Gibson lineups I finished with 35.1 and had around a 150% return on my investment. The Pavelec lineups finished at 51.3 and I had a 3000% return on my investment. If I just would have entered each lineup into the same amount and style of contests I wouldn’t have tilted as hard after the Anaheim and Winnipeg games went final. The only difference was Gibson/Ristolainen and Pavelec/OEL. Over a 16 point spread between the two lineups.

The other tilt buster is to enter the same contests everyday regardless if it’s a 3-game night or a 12-game night. I’ve been guilty of that myself, like Tuesday night, having very good finishes mitigated by the size of the investment. I had five lineups in the 40’s on DK and four between 46-53 on FanDuel. I just didn’t enter them into the same amount of contests I do on full slates. 

So my two tips of advice to prevent you from tilting hard is this. If you are torn between two plays, especially goalie plays, split the entries and enter them in the exact same amount of contests for the same amount of money. Then enter the same contests regardless of schedule size. This wont have you regretting hitting 55 on DK when you entered two contests. 

Adam Jazdzewski

I am the founder and owner of DFS Datalytics. I've been stats minded even as a kid. I used to write down my own stats in NHL '95, I've played season long fantasy sports since the mid 90’s and have made the jump to DFS three seasons ago. I specialize in NHL and NASCAR. Catch my on twitter @LedgerSko and @DFSDatalytics #DataForWinning

ledgersko has 223 posts and counting.See all posts by ledgersko

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